The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. I think it worked out without me.. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. I trust the system implicitly, he said. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. I think he is more for giving to the people.. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Blaine County. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. I got a life. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Theres significant variability among them, though. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. At least Biden is honest, he said. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. Medicare is becoming a joke. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. A lot of people think things are. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. Two states have announced recounts. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. But according to the. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. Pre-performance Lobby events. He says hell vote for Trump. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. Peoples common sense level is cooked. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. Youre not getting anybody perfect. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. And we just want that to continue. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. Required fields are marked *. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. We dont want it, she said. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. Please read our comments policy before commenting. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. But thats not the picture I look at. Its crazy. SACRAMENTO . He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. He considers Trump pro-life. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Theres too much mishandling, she said. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. I dont watch TV. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). . Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. It will cycle through. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. 'I Should Start Voting'. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. I kind of keep in my bubble. Two states have announced recounts. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. I hope.. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . I dont think he has done that bad of a job. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. I quit voting once out of the union.. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. I just want Trump in. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. By Cara Ding. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. That is a very good thing to have. Were a service industry-oriented area. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. Theres too much corruption. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). I think all politicians are crooks. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Vance. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. Its horrible. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Here's why. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. Its just not that great, Paul said. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said.